Just two months ago that the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a symptom or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have accumulated.
Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
